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Economic losses caused by flooding due to global warming

In Europe, floods are linked to high fluctuations of atmospheric pressure. These variations are also known as the North Atlantic Oscillation. Stefan Zanardo and his colleagues at Risk Management Solutions, London, UK, analyzed historical records of severe floodings in Europe since 1870. They compared patterns of atmospheric pressure at the time of the floods. When the North Atlantic Oscillation is in a positive state, a depression over Iceland drives wind and storm throughout northern Europe. In a negative state, however, it makes southern Europe moister than usual. Normally, floods occur in northern Europe. They cause the most damage if the North Atlantic Oscillation was positive in winter. If enough rain has already fallen to saturate the soil, high risk conditions for flooding are met. Air pressure in Europe may change with global warming and public administrations should take this into account when assessing flood risk in a region, the researchers say.

This is important because flooding in Europe often causes loss of life, significant property damage , and business interruptions. Global warming will further worsen this situation. Risk distribution will change as well. The frequent occurrence of catastrophic flooding in recent years has sparked strong interest in this problem in both the public and private sectors. The public sector has been working to improve early warning systems. In fact, these early warning systems have economic benefits. In addition, various risk mitigating strategies have been implemented in European countries. These include flood protection, measures to increase risk awareness, and risk transfer through better dissemination of flood insurance. The fight against the root cause, global warming that is, however, is still far behind to what is needed.

Correlations between large-scale climate patterns, and in particular the North Atlantic Oscillation, and extreme events in the water cycle on the European continent have long been described in the literature. With with more severe and more often flooding as well as alarming global warming scenarios, raising concerns over future flood-related economic losses have become the focus of public attention. Although it is known that climatic patterns also control meteorological events, it is not always clear whether this link will affect the frequency and severeness fo flooding and the associated economic losses. In their study, the researchers relate the North Atlantic Oscillation to economic flood losses.

The researchers used recent data from flood databases as well as disaster models to establish this relation. The models allowed the quantification of the economic losses that ultimately caused by the North Atlantic Oscillation. These losses vary widely between the countries within the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The study shows that the North Atlantic Oscillation can well predict the average losses in the long term. Based on the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the researchers argue that, in particular, the temporal variations of the flood risks caused by climate oscillations can be forecast. This can help to take encounter catastrophic flood events early on. As a result, flood damage can be minimized or even avoided. As scientists improve their predictions for the North Atlantic Oscillation, society will be better prepared for future flooding.

(Photo: Wikipedia, Stefan Penninger, Sweden)

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White Christmas, going … gone

In Germany, we seem to remember White Christmas from fairy tales only. Now there is also scientific evidence that winter snow cover in Europe is thinning. Thanks to global warming, the snow cover decrease accelerated

The research group behind Dr. Fontrodona Bach of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute in De Bilt analyzed snow cover and climate data from six decades from thousands of weather stations across Europe. The researchers found that the mean snow depth, with the exception of some local extremely cold spots, has been decreasing since 1951 at 12% per decade. The researchers recently published their research results in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. The amount of “extreme” snow cover affecting local infrastructure has declined more slowly.

The observed decline, which accelerated after the 80s, is the result of a combination of rising temperatures and the impact of climate change on precipitation. The decreasing snow cover can reduce the availability of fresh water during the spring melt, the authors noted.

(Photo: Doris Wulf)

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You Can Have the Pie and Eat It

In Paris, humanity has set itself the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Most people believe that this will be accompanied by significant sacrifice of quality of life. That is one reason why climate protection is simply rejected by many people, even to the point of outright denial. At Frontis Energy, we think we can protect the climate and live better. The latest study published in Nature Energy by a research group around Arnulf Grubler of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria, has now shown that we have good reasons.

The team used computer models to explore the potential of technological trends to reduce energy consumption. Among other things, the researchers said that the use of shared car services will increase and that fossil fuels will give way to solar energy and other forms of renewable energy. Their results show that global energy consumption would decrease by about 40% regardless of population, income, and economic growth. Air pollution and demand for biofuels would also decrease, which would improve health and food supplies.

In contrast to many previous assessments, the group’s findings suggest that humans can limit the temperature rise to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels without resorting to drastic strategies to extract CO2 from the atmosphere later in the century.

Now, one can argue whether shared car services do not cut quality of life. Nevertheless, we think that individual mobility can be maintained while protecting our climate. CO2 recovery for the production of fuels (CO2 recycling that is) is such a possibility. The Power-to-Gas technology is the most advanced version of CO2 recycling and should certainly be considered in future studies. An example of such an assessment of the power-to-gas technology was published by a Swiss research group headed by Frédéric Meylan, who found that the carbon footprint can be neutralized with conventional technology after just a few cycles.

(Picture: Pieter Bruegel the Elder, The Land of Cockaigne, Wikipedia)

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The Photosynthetic CO2 Race − Plants vs. Algae

Algae store CO2 but also release it. Some of us may know that. However, so far it was unknown that algae may release additional CO2 due to global warming. That’s what researcher Chao Song and his colleagues of the University of Georgia in Athens, GA, found out.

As they published in the journal Nature Geoscience, the metabolism of algae and other microbes is accelerated by higher water temperatures in large streams. This could lead to some rivers releasing more CO2 than they do now. This could, in turn, further accelerate global warming. Although photosynthesis in algae would accelerate, plants along the river banks would be even faster. Decomposition of the plant material would immediately release the so fixed CO2. With extra nutrients from plants, competing microorganisms would overgrow the river algae or the algae would degrade the plant material themselves.

To calculate the CO2 net effect, scientists monitored temperature, dissolved oxygen, and other parameters in 70 rivers worldwide. Then they used their data for computer models. These models suggest that over time, accelerated photosynthesis in some rivers may not keep pace with plant growth. This net increase of 24% of the CO2 released from rivers could mean an additional global temperature increase of 1 °C.

However, the computer model still lacks some data. For example, the sedimentation rates are not taken into account. In addition, not all banks grow plants. Many rivers pass only sparsely vegetated land. As always, more research is needed to get better answers.

(Photo: Wikipedia)